If we want to engage in wild speculation, then we need grist for the mill. Public Policy Polling knows that and has graciously obliged us with a pair of polls out of Iowa.
The results may not surprise you. First, the Democrats.
Hillary Clinton - 58%
Joe Biden - 17%
Someone Else/Not Sure - 13%
Andrew Cuomo - 6%
Elizabeth Warren - 3%
Deval Patrick - 1%
Brian Schweitzer - 1%
Martin O'Malley - 0%
Mark Warner - 0%
Obviously, Clinton starts out way ahead of the pack. But there is considerable reason to doubt that she will run. When they polled without her in the mix, Biden jumps to 40%. But there's also good reason to doubt that he will ultimately join the fray. So here's the breakdown without the big dogs.
Someone Else/Not Sure - 46%
Andrew Cuomo - 30%
Elizabeth Warren - 13%
Deval Patrick - 4%
Martin O'Malley - 3%
Brian Schweitzer - 2%
Mark Warner - 2%
Although "Somone Else/Not Sure" is on top, Cuomo starts out with a fairly sizable lead over the other potential candidates. This makes sense considering his name is also a well-established brand in Democratic politics. You could theorize that he's also getting a bump from New York being in the news due to Sandy, but really Bloomberg and Christie have been much more visible than Cuomo in the national media.
Elizabeth Warren also gets a decent chunk of support, which is probably slightly inflated due to enthusiasm over her recent victory. The other names on the list probably have poor name recognition outside of their respective states. All the more reason to fry some steaks with Tom Harkin and start glad-handing those Iowans.
The Republican side is much more split.
Mike Huckabee - 15%
Chris Christie - 12%
Paul Ryan - 12%
Marco Rubio - 12%
Jeb Bush - 11%
Rick Santorum - 10%
Condaleezza Rice - 9%
Not Sure/Someone Else - 8%
Rand Paul - 5%
Sarah Palin - 4%
The first thing I find striking is how well Huckabee does. Sure, he's not ahead by much. But he also hasn't run for office since 2008! That's a long time to be out of the spotlight and manage to hold on to so much support outside of your home state. Santorum just won the caucus back in January and he doesn't even crack the top five. Huckabee must have made a lasting impression with Iowa Republicans four years ago.
I guess we've always known he's very good a getting his message aCROSS...
In all seriousness, I think Huck missed a huge opportunity in 2012. He was probably the best anti-Romney candidate out there and certainly would've given Obama a run for his money. The guy is extremely likable even when he's spouting horrible policy ideas.
The other remarkable thing (as in it restores my faith in humanity) is how far Sarah Palin's stock has fallen. If she's behind Condaleezza Rice in a poll of Iowa Republicans (especially at this early stage), then I don't think there's much chance of a Barracuda comeback.
Elizabeth Warren also gets a decent chunk of support, which is probably slightly inflated due to enthusiasm over her recent victory. The other names on the list probably have poor name recognition outside of their respective states. All the more reason to fry some steaks with Tom Harkin and start glad-handing those Iowans.
The Republican side is much more split.
Mike Huckabee - 15%
Chris Christie - 12%
Paul Ryan - 12%
Marco Rubio - 12%
Jeb Bush - 11%
Rick Santorum - 10%
Condaleezza Rice - 9%
Not Sure/Someone Else - 8%
Rand Paul - 5%
Sarah Palin - 4%
The first thing I find striking is how well Huckabee does. Sure, he's not ahead by much. But he also hasn't run for office since 2008! That's a long time to be out of the spotlight and manage to hold on to so much support outside of your home state. Santorum just won the caucus back in January and he doesn't even crack the top five. Huckabee must have made a lasting impression with Iowa Republicans four years ago.
I guess we've always known he's very good a getting his message aCROSS...
In all seriousness, I think Huck missed a huge opportunity in 2012. He was probably the best anti-Romney candidate out there and certainly would've given Obama a run for his money. The guy is extremely likable even when he's spouting horrible policy ideas.
The other remarkable thing (as in it restores my faith in humanity) is how far Sarah Palin's stock has fallen. If she's behind Condaleezza Rice in a poll of Iowa Republicans (especially at this early stage), then I don't think there's much chance of a Barracuda comeback.
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